The Nation (Thailand)/ANNThe forecast that Yingluck Shinawatra will become Thailand's first female prime minister is suddenly not as certain as it was in the immediate aftermath of the July 3 election. But whatever Tuesday's decision by the Election Commission to "suspend" her means, she has had the first glimpse of what awaits her if she is officially announced as the country's next leader. The baptism of fire for Thaksin Shinawatra's dearest sister has apparently begun in earnest.
The Election Commission's decision not to immediately endorse her as an MP could be just a matter of formality. The panel traditionally does not endorse or confirm election winners right away if complaints have been made against them. The best-case scenario for Yingluck, therefore, is her eventual endorsement by the EC next week. To pessimistic observers of Thai politics, particularly those among her supporters, a new storm could be brewing already.
moreThe bad news for Yingluck is that while it is not unusual for the EC to delay endorsing candidates accused of violating election laws, it has never before acted against party-list winners in this way. For one thing, party list candidates normally don't have to do much campaigning, so they are more protected against charges of misconduct.
But as Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate, Yingluck was actively involved in the election campaign. Worse still, she had to interact publicly with banned politicians and refer to her convicted brother Thaksin many times to attract support. Political circumstances required tactics - such as the posters that proclaimed "Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai does" - which made Yingluck legally vulnerable.
But the stakes are higher than Yingluck's future. Disqualifying Yingluck alone would be enough to send red-shirt protesters back onto the streets. But on Tuesday (July 12), the election commission (EC) did more than just suspend her. Several red-shirt leaders on Pheu Thai's party list were not granted endorsement, a situation that is upsetting the entire red-shirt apparatus. All of a sudden, the semblance of political peace that followed the July 3 poll is looking fragile.
The EC's decision to suspend Yingluck along with several other poll winners on Tuesday may not affect the process of convening the new House of Representatives. The law requires a quorum of at least 475 MPs to convene the House, whereas only 358 poll winners have been endorsed. However, since the law allows the EC to act against MPs after Parliament convenes, suspended winners can first be endorsed so that the quorum can be met, then disqualified later.
In other words, the new House should convene in time, within 30 days of the July 3 election. But this can't be good news if Yingluck is not among those who make up the quorum. If she is prevented from vying for the post of premier, turmoil on the streets cannot be ruled out.
But Yingluck's troubles have only just begun. Even if she is confirmed as an MP and finally elected prime minister, a floodgate of new political problems is likely to open. Some analysts believe her road will be so strewn with landmines that there may come a day when she regrets not being disqualified by the EC from the beginning.
As prime minister, Yingluck will always be haunted by her own past and the spectre of her big brother, Thaksin Shinawatra. Her testimony in the Thaksin assets case will be used as a political weapon against her almost immediately. During the trial, she told the court she owned parts of Thaksin's allegedly "unusually high" wealth, and her opponents could use those words to trap her.
Outgoing prime minister Abhisit was also suspended by the EC, and his party may once again face dissolution if he is found guilty. But the focus is now on the new kid in town. Whether or not she is finally set free by the EC to enter the next phase of her short political career, Yingluck's dreamland of a stunning political campaign and election victory is fast dissolving into one harsh reality.
