Courtesy - The Sunday Leader By Janith Aranze
Since the earthquake and tsunami disasters which struck Japan last month, attention has turned to how we can restrict the damage natural disasters cause. With over 25,000 people losing their lives in Japan, and after the tsunami which hit South-East Asia in 2004, it seems as though we are defenceless in the face of such adversity.
A Professor at the University of Peradeniya, Professor Athula Senaratne has claimed that he can predict the approximate time and place when an earthquake will strike. It is indeed a ground-breaking concept, as it is widely believed that the technology for predicting earthquakes does not yet exist. Senaratne says he predicted the 7.1 magnitude earthquake in Japan on April 7 and also several earthquakes in Indonesia and New Zealand which occurred from April 13th to 19th this year.more
Earthquakes take place when a sudden release of energy in the Earth’s crust creates seismic waves and causes the ground to shake. They are usually caused by the rupture of geological faults, volcanic activity, landslides or nuclear tests. Tsunamis on the other hand are a series of water waves caused by the displacement of a large volume of a body of water. Tsunamis are usually caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides as well. Though tsunamis cannot be precisely predicted, there are warning signs that can be given through automated systems immediately after an earthquake.
Senaratne attributes his predictions to the use of skymaps in analysing data on earthquakes from over 100 years ago and linking them to planetary alignments. “Skymaps were used for the large earthquakes randomly selected from the past 100 years, where a specific clustering of planets was identified on the days of the earthquakes. Where and when the same map would be found on a future date was selected as a probable earthquake day. It worked for over seventy-five percent (75%) of selected days checked for the past 100 years,” Prof. Senaratne told The Sunday Leader. He says that it is the 2012 predictions of the end of the world, which provoked him into his line of research.
The ‘End of the World’ predictions are based on eschatological beliefs that calamitous or transformative events will take place on December 21, 2012. Some believe this will mark the beginning of a new era, while others believe it marks the end of the world.
Many in the geological field however remain sceptical of Senaratne’s findings, claiming his methods are nothing more then pseudoscience, and are yet to be verified. The Chairman, Geological Survey and Mines Bureau, Dr. N.P. Wijayananda told The Sunday Leader that he remained cautious of Senaratne’s predictions. “At the moment there is no technology available to predict earthquakes. If there was, it would be one of the greatest contributions to mankind. With earthquakes taking so many lives in Japan and New Zealand this year, to prevent such disasters would be a great step forward,” he told The Sunday Leader.
When asked about Senaratne’s predictions he said they should be met with a ‘degree of vigilance,’ and he criticised Senaratne for going public with his predictions. “He is at a very initial stage. With past earthquakes he has studied the planetary set-up so they may or may not be variable. Anyone can predict earthquakes in Indonesia, they are a daily occurrence,” he explained. “It was highly premature of him to go public with his findings. He should have published them in a journal first,” Wijayananda told The Sunday Leader.
A colleague of Senaratne at the University of Peradeniya, Professor Kapila Dahanayake, said that he should not be judged until his methods have been tested by others in the geological field. “So far international knowledge is that earthquakes cannot be predicted, however his predictions have come true, so until we have used his methodology then its hard to express an opinion on it,” he told The Sunday Leader.
Prof. Senaratne caused controversy when he had predicted an earthquake in Indonesia would lead to a tsunami on the south coast of Sri Lanka. A consequence of this was widespread panic and many in coastal areas left their homes in fear. “His prediction caused a lot of unrest, trips were cancelled and we had to tell the public not to leave. He should have been cautious,” Dr. Wijayananda told The Sunday Leader.
Spokesman for the Disaster Management Centre, Pradeep Kodippili also noted that it caused a lot of disorder. “It was a big rumour, panic set in and people moved from their homes. It all stemmed from a prediction and to our knowledge we cannot predict earthquakes, even the Japanese earthquake nobody could predict it,” Kodippili explained. There has even been talk of taking legal action against Senaratne, though the DMC says it does not have the ‘capacity’ to launch legal action. However Senaratne has refuted claims that he willingly made his prediction public, “It was first presented at a professional research session which became a public matter. We did not predict tsunamis and never asked any media to publish our findings. Authorities may check recordings with the broadcasters,” he said.
Kodippili however did state that if a tsunami were to occur, Sri Lanka would be well equipped to deal with the consequences. “We have a good early warning system, and we have disaster management programmes in place to help keep the communities safe and the ability to evacuate coastal areas. With the police and military, all our systems are linked together,” Kodippili told The Sunday Leader.
Senaratne is certainly not short of critics, though he stands by his methods and has ‘proof’ to show the validity of his predictions. “We predicted earthquakes on the Indo-Australian plate, we expected several earthquakes to occur in this region between April 16-20,” Senaratne said. Indeed on April 18 the Hawaii Tsunami Center issued a tsunami warning, acknowledging that an earthquake had occurred south of the Kermadec Islands. After evaluating the situation, they withdrew the warning but Senaratne claims that this is proof that his method works.
The debate will rage on over whether Senaratne has valid grounds to claim that he can predict earthquakes, and for the moment he finds himself standing alone in his quest to spread his method. However this will not stop him from carrying out his work; “When somebody moves away from the beaten track, ‘scientists’ tend to resist. It needs a lot of research to accept or reject a new idea. We cannot hang on to old equations,” Senaratne says. The question is whether the rest of world is prepared to listen to him.
Confusion Over Kirinda TremorA reported tremor in Kirinda left several houses damaged this week; however there have been conflicting reports as to what caused the tremor. The Geological Survey and Mines Bureau (GSMB) has said that the ‘shake’ was caused by the blasting of rocks in the Hambantota area. “The damage that was caused was not due to an earthquake. It was the blasting of rocks in the Hambantota area which caused it. If it was an earthquake there should have been much more devastation,” Chairman, GSMB, Dr. N.P. Wijayananda, told The Sunday Leader.He even said that the damage could be down to structural faults with the houses. “It is only concrete beams that have fallen from the houses, so it appears that there have been structural faults with the houses. Usually for an earthquake windows are broken at least, but this did not happen” he said. However when The Sunday Leader spoke to Professor Athula Senaratne of the University of Peradeniya, who has been to Kirinda to investigate the tremors, he explained that the tremor was a by-product of other earthquakes. “It is clearly linked to the earthquakes in Guam and the Kermadec Islands.The United States Geological Survey (USGS) recorded time for these earthquakes fits very well with the one in Kirinda,” he told The Sunday Leader. “The Science and Technology Officers operating at respective Divisional Secretary Offices have recorded information from the people who witnessed them, and I too have spoken to them. All the criteria to recognise a tremor as prescribed by the USGS were fulfilled at all the sites,” he explained.
